When I wrote about Bitcoin sitting at a hinge between 100k and 120k, I was making a simple point. That band is not just another resistance zone. It is the area where Bitcoin either grows into its role as serious monetary infrastructure or gets reminded that it is still a very young, very emotional asset.
Since then, the market has actually stepped into that band and even overshot it. Bitcoin printed new records above 120k, then slid back under 90k. As I write this on 24 November 2025, Bitcoin trades around 88k.
That hinge view was built on three simple ideas.
● First, supply. The 2024 halving cut the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. That permanently slows the creation of new coins.
● Second, access. Spot Bitcoin ETFs gave pension funds, family offices, and traditional investors a clean way to buy Bitcoin with a ticker instead of private keys.
● Third, holders. A growing share of coins now sits with long-term holders who think in years, not weeks, and in some cases with balance sheets at the country and corporate level.
The conclusion was clear. If Bitcoin can move into the 100k to 120k zone and live there, the market is starting to accept the second story. If it keeps getting rejected there, the first story is still in control.
What happened after the hinge article
Since I published the hinge piece on 11 November 2025, Bitcoin has done exactly what that zone was set up to test.
In the days that followed, price lost the 100k level and slipped out of the 100k to 120k band. It moved down toward the high 80,000s, which I had marked as the first important area if the hinge did not hold. As I write this on 24 November 2025, Bitcoin is trading around 88,000 dollars, so that zone has now been tested in practice.
At the same time, the behaviour of spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped. Products that had been pulling money in earlier in the year started to see consistent outflows. Through November, United States-listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen several billion dollars of net redemptions, and even the largest fund has recorded record single-day withdrawals on down days.
So in a short window after the article, three things were visible at once. The market failed to hold above the hinge, price moved into the high 80,000s area, and ETF flows turned from a strong tailwind into a clear headwind.
What did not change was the underlying supply picture. The 2024 halving is still in the past. The block reward is still 3.125 BTC per block. New supply is still limited. The test has been about positioning and sentiment around that structure, not about the structure itself.
This makes the period after 11 November a clean live example of how the market behaves when the hinge gives way and the next level below comes into play.
How I think about the next phase
From here, I am less interested in guessing an exact price and more interested in how the market behaves within a range.
In the near term, it is reasonable to expect more noise somewhere between the mid 70,000s and the low 100,000s. Inside that zone, headlines, macro data and ETF flows will continue to push prices around. Some weeks will bring inflows. Other weeks will bring outflows. That back and forth is normal price discovery after a failed breakout.
If Bitcoin can spend time in this range without any structural damage, the market slowly becomes more comfortable with six-figure territory. In that case, the 100k to 120k band can shift from being a ceiling to being a zone the market can eventually step back into with less drama.
A deeper move is still possible. A sharper macro shock, a regulatory surprise or another round of forced liquidations could take prices under 75,000 for a while. If that happens, the key question will not be whether the chart looks good on any given day. It will be whether long-term holders are actually distributing or staying put. If they mostly hold on, any deeper sell off becomes more about changing who owns the coins than about breaking the asset.
There is also a faster path. If outflows slow, macro conditions stabilise, and ETF demand returns in a steady way, Bitcoin can reclaim the 100k level sooner than most people expect. The real sign of progress would not be a quick spike. It would be the market being able to sit inside the hinge zone without constant panic.
Across all of these paths, the core facts stay the same. New supply is limited. Access is easier than ever. The debate is about how quickly human behaviour adjusts to that reality.
How I use this hinge view inside LadyFoxx
For most people, Bitcoin’s biggest challenge is not the protocol, it is the behaviour around it.
From the outside, the last move just looks like another wild swing. Price was below 80k earlier in the year, then traded above 120k, then slipped into the high 80,000s again. Headlines went from “new highs and record inflows” to “sharp drop and record outflows” in a very short sequence. Without a framework, that is exhausting and often leads to bad decisions.
Inside LadyFoxx, I aim to turn that noise into a clearer structure.
We explain halvings and supply in plain language so users know what really changed in 2024.
We separate short-term ETF flows from the slower behaviour of long-term holders so people can see which signals matter and which do not.
We give users a way to rehearse decisions around zones like 100k to 120k in a simulated setting before they commit real capital.
When you understand why the hinge exists and what it means when 100k breaks and the high 80,000s get tested, you are less likely to react with panic or FOMO. You can decide whether Bitcoin belongs in your plan, and if it does, how you want to size it and over what time horizon.
That is the point of this follow up. Not to celebrate that a level was hit, but to show how the structure I laid out on 11 November is playing out in real time and how you can use it to think more clearly about your own choices.
Got questions? Ideas? Big goals? Let’s talk money, AI, and everything in between.
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