Bitcoin reached approximately $125k in early October and then pulled back to around $100k. That zone acts like a decision point. Hold above $100k and push back into $112k to $120k, and momentum can return. Lose $100k due to weak demand, and prices often hover around the high $80ks before buyers step in again.
Here is the simple idea. Bitcoin is now driven mainly through real money coming in and out of spot markets and exchange-traded funds. It is less about overextended leverage than it was during the run up. Three dials tell most of the story. Daily ETF flows. Long-term holder behaviour. Miner revenue. Read those dials, and the range around $100k starts to make sense.
ETF flows
When ETFs receive cash, they purchase Bitcoin and reduce the supply in the market. During the rally week, global crypto ETFs raised approximately $ 5.95 billion. That was a strong tailwind. More recently, the tape has been two-way. On some days, funds posted red prints, indicating approximately $558M of outflows on a single day in early November. Near $100k, these prints matter. Green flows make bids confident. Red flows make bids cautious.
Long-term holders
These are wallets that tend to hold for months. On-chain data shows they have been selling a bit into strength while price tries to defend $100k. It is not panic selling. It is the kind of patient distribution that can cap rallies until new demand absorbs it. If their spending slows while ETFs print green, rallies travel farther.
Miner economics
Miners earn revenue from block rewards and fees. A simple yardstick called hashprice tracks revenue per unit of compute. In early November, it hovered around $42 to $44 per PH per day. When prices are low and fees are minimal, some miners hedge or sell coins to cover their power and equipment costs. That adds a small extra supply at the worst times and can press prices during dips.
How I read the levels
Think of $100k as a shelf. The market defended it several times. Think of $112k to $120k as the ceiling that needs to turn into a floor. Accept above that ceiling, and the path back to the highs opens up. Lose the $100k shelf while ETF prints stay red and the market often checks the high $80ks, where several on-chain cost measures cluster. That pocket is where value buyers usually reappear.
Two clear paths from here
Bull path. A run of green ETF days. Options traders are paying up for calls on up moves. A visible slowdown in long-term holder spending. Stable or improving miner revenue. Accept back into the range of $112k to $120k. Build a base there. Reach for the highs. Bear path. Several consecutive red ETF days. Put heavy options skew on down moves. Ongoing long-term holder distribution. Softer hash price. Break $100k cleanly. Slide toward the high $80ks. Rebuild energy there.
What I will check each morning
● ETF net flows, and whether they stay green or red for several days.
● Price relative to $100k and the $112k to $120k band.
● Long-term holder spending on on-chain dashboards.
● Miner health through hashprice and fee share.
My take
Bitcoin is not broken. It has shifted from a leverage driven melt up to a flow driven price discovery phase. If $100k holds while ETFs turn green and long-term holder selling cools, I expect acceptance back into the $112k to $120k range and a serious run at the highs. If $100k snaps during red flows, a reset into the high $80ks looks like a pit stop, not the end of the cycle. Let the flows, the holder data, and miner revenue call the play.
Work cited
● Reuters. Bitcoin hits all time high above $125k.
● Reuters. Global crypto ETFs attract record $5.95 billion as bitcoin scales new highs.
● Crypto.news. All 12 Bitcoin ETFs see outflows totaling $558M.
● Glassnode Insights. The Week On Chain. Defending $100k.
● Yahoo Finance. Bitcoin miners face a squeeze as the hash price nears break-even.
● Hashrate Index. Live hashprice data and weekly mining roundup.
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How to buy LDFX
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How to buy LDFX
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